Because the subsidy method is simple and rude, the subsidy quota is abnormally high, making the new energy bus become the hardest hit area for the whole new energy vehicle field. Judging from the seven “scams†​​companies previously disclosed, the proportion of companies involved in new energy buses is not small. Therefore, there is no doubt that the follow-up subsidy policy will greatly adjust the subsidy method and subsidy quota for new energy buses.
However, although the relevant new energy bus companies are psychologically prepared, the new subsidy policy has not been released. Recently, Ye Shengji, secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, said: "The new subsidy policy should be introduced within this year, but the specific implementation will not be promoted until next year. He pointed out that although the policy is introduced later, it will greatly promote new energy vehicles after the introduction. Industrialization development."
Subsequently, some websites circulated the draft of the new energy vehicle subsidy adjustment in 2016. The draft made a major adjustment in terms of the subsidy method and the subsidy amount compared with the previous implementation of the new energy subsidy program. In general, the subsidies for new energy passenger vehicles have not changed; the technical guidelines for electric logistics vehicles have not yet been determined, and the subsidy program has been suspended; and the subsidy methods and subsidies for new energy buses have undergone major changes.
“Although we have made sufficient psychological preparations for the subsidy method and the adjustment of the subsidy quota for the new subsidy policy, if the subsidy for pure electric bus on the Internet is reduced by 42% and the subsidy for hybrid electric bus is reduced by 50%, it will undoubtedly Some new energy bus companies have formed a huge impact." A car company official said that if the rumors are true, more than 80% of new energy bus companies will face a big test.
According to the draft subsidy circulating on the Internet, first of all, in the case of pure electric buses, the battery type is no longer distinguished, the length of the vehicle is no longer distinguished, the mileage is no longer distinguished, and the unit load quality is no longer assessed. Instead, the energy density is divided into three gear positions of 80Wh/kg-110Wh/kg, 110Wh/kg-120Wh/kg and 120Wh/kg, and then the subsidy standard is determined according to the energy density gear.
The cruising range is more than 200 kilometers, the battery energy density is 110Wh/kg-120Wh/kg, and the subsidy amount is 1800 yuan/Kwh as the subsidy standard for pure electric vehicles. The upper and lower two files are calculated by 0.8 times and 1.2 times, and the total amount is not more than 350,000 per vehicle. In the original subsidy program, the maximum subsidy amount is 600,000 yuan per vehicle, and the maximum subsidy in this subsidy program has dropped by 42%.
(Note: The mode and amount of subsidies for pure electric vehicles transmitted on the Internet)
It can also be seen from the subsidy policies introduced by various localities. Previously, the local finances pursued the subsidy standard of 1:1 with the central government. Now the amount of local subsidies has also shrunk dramatically. Recently, Putian City of Fujian Province issued the implementation rules for the promotion and application of new energy non-bus vehicles and the construction of subsidy facilities for charging facilities. The rules stipulate that pure electric buses will receive a maximum subsidy of 250,000 yuan per vehicle according to the cruising range.
At the same time, Jiangxi Province also released the “Financial Subsidy Scheme for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in Jiangxi Province in 2016â€. The plan mentioned that the maximum subsidy for consumers to buy pure electric buses is 90,000 yuan, and the maximum subsidy for purchasing pure electric passenger cars is 1.4. Ten thousand yuan, and the subsidy target is to purchase users of new energy vehicles in the Jiangxi area that are included in the list of recommended models for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
Local new energy bus subsidies have shrunk dramaticallyAccording to the subsidy standard of Jiangxi Province, the central government subsidy is up to 350,000 yuan, and the local financial subsidy is only 440,000 yuan after the maximum of 90,000 yuan. And according to the subsidy standards previously pursued, the central government subsidies up to 600,000 yuan plus local financial subsidies up to 600,000 yuan to 1.2 million yuan. It can be seen that the adjusted subsidy amount is only about 1/3 of the previous quota, which is a significant reduction.
In the plug-in hybrid bus section, according to the fuel saving rate, it is divided into 40%-50%, 50-60% and 60% or more. The cruising range is greater than 50 kilometers, and the fuel saving rate is 50-60%. The subsidy is 3,000 yuan/Kwh as the subsidy standard for hybrid buses. The upper and lower two files are calculated by 1.2 times and 0.8 times, and the total amount should not exceed 150,000/car, which is 50% lower than the original subsidy of 300,000/car.
(Note: The subsidy method and amount of hybrid electric vehicles transmitted on the Internet)
According to data from the Association, in October, domestic new energy passenger vehicles sold a total of 31,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 52%. Among them, plug-in hybrid vehicles sold 4,178 units, down 31% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of this year, the share of plug-in hybrid vehicles was gradually reduced. In the first quarter, the hybrid vehicle market accounted for 37%, and in the third quarter it fell to 28%. As of the end of October, it fell to 13%.
The reason why pure electric vehicles are more popular is also related to subsidy policies to a considerable extent. At present, the only models that enter the subsidy catalogue in Beijing are pure electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrid vehicles are not covered by subsidies. According to data from the Association, Beijing contributed nearly 50% of new energy vehicle sales nationwide in October. Nowadays, the subsidy for passenger cars is reduced by 50%, and the sales of plug-in hybrid buses will definitely be more adversely affected.
Is the subsidy cut down on new energy buses?As of now, the authenticity and authority of the subsidy standards mentioned above have not been officially confirmed. However, the situation mentioned in the previous "cheat" list on the Internet is highly consistent with the actual situation, so even though it is the news of the network transmission, its authenticity is also questionable. After all, every news of the state's subsidy program for new energy vehicles is affecting the nerves of the upstream and downstream industries.
In response to the adjustment of the subsidy for passenger cars in the new version of the subsidy draft, the author also interviewed many domestic mainstream manufacturers of new energy buses. Everyone said that the energy density mentioned in the new version of the subsidy draft does not mention the monomer or the whole vehicle. If it is the energy density after the PACK of the whole vehicle, the energy density of most models in the recommended catalogue of new energy vehicles is now 90- Between 100Wh/kg, it is generally only possible to get the lowest subsidy.
At present, the cost of the battery is between 2,300 yuan / kWh - 2,800 yuan / kWh, if according to such standards, new energy buses and fuel buses do not have a competitive advantage, which is not conducive to the promotion of new energy buses. What is more serious is that the existing new energy bus companies will die at least 80%, and only a few mainstream bus companies can barely survive, but they will all have a very difficult time.
"Why do car companies have such a big reaction to the draft? In fact, the bottom line is that the current domestic new energy bus companies have insufficient 'hematopoietic capacity', and many companies rely on government subsidies for 'transfusion' to survive." A bus company is responsible for People said that in terms of strong listed companies, most of the new energy car companies will be very ugly if they take out government subsidies.
Looking back on 2015, the revenue and net profit of a number of bus-listed companies have increased significantly. In the annual report, all companies attributed the huge increase in profits to the policy support for new energy vehicles, and thus received corresponding government subsidies. Among them, Xiamen Jinlong received government subsidies of more than 5.8 billion yuan, more than 10 times its net profit; Zhongtong Automobile received government subsidies three times its annual net profit.
"The government cannot always pay for the development of new energy vehicles, and new energy vehicles will achieve their own 'hematopoietic' to survive better." The person in charge of the above-mentioned bus companies said that the original intention of government subsidies is to accelerate the development of the new energy vehicle industry. Rather than hoping to subsidize an industry.
Whether it is willing or not, the reduction of subsidies for new energy vehicles is a fact of being unable to move. At the same time that the list of “fraudulent†companies was disclosed, including the subsidies issued by Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Jiangxi and other places, there was a tendency of “subsidies to retreatâ€. That is to reduce the subsidies for new energy vehicles year by year, until the 2020 subsidies completely withdraw from the new energy vehicle stage.
The decline in subsidies for new energy buses has become inevitableSong Qiuling, deputy director of the Department of Economic Construction of the Ministry of Finance, said earlier that the practice has proved that the preferential subsidy policy implemented by new energy vehicles has been effective in cultivating the primary market for new energy vehicles, but long-term implementation will cause new energy vehicle enterprises to suffer. Subsidy dependence, losing the power of technology research and development and product upgrades, resulting in a low level of blind expansion, it seems that the current situation of the entire industry is like this.
Therefore, some enterprises believe that even if the subsidy adjustment of the network transmission is real, its promotion to the development of the new energy bus industry will outweigh the disadvantages. At present, the new energy bus industry is chaotic, and it is urgent to eliminate the low-end production capacity by strictly controlling the conditions for issuing subsidies and issuing heat in order to avoid flooding the market.
“In 2015, there was a big problem in the new energy bus industry, which deviated from the normal development track of the industry. The country made such adjustments with good intentions. The new energy bus is still the direction, but the new energy bus industry cannot rely on policy leadership, but Returning to market-oriented competition, we only hope that the policy will land as soon as possible, and new energy bus companies can safely sell cars." Industry insiders said.
By the way, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is currently leading the development of power battery guidance, and proposes that by 2020, the battery cell should be 350Wh/kg, and the whole vehicle should be 260Wh/kg. Relevant persons have revealed that the guidance has entered the signing stage. Compared with the current energy density of 90-100Wh/Kg for the whole vehicle, everyone is worried about subsidies and does not know if there is any sense of urgency.
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