Top Ten Trends of China's ICT Market in 2015

In 2015, China’s overall policy was to stabilize growth, discover and cultivate new growth points, accelerate the transformation of agricultural development methods, optimize the economic development pattern, and ensure and improve people’s livelihood. IDC predicts that under the guidance of this policy, China's economy will continue to grow steadily, but it will further decline. In 2015, China's GDP is expected to increase by 7%. The development of China's ICT market, like the Chinese economy, has also entered a new normal. IDC expects China’s overall ICT market size to reach US$465.6 billion in 2015, an increase of 11.4% over 2014. The IT market scale will reach US$211.8 billion, an increase of 5.7% over 2014, and the telecommunications service market will reach US$253.8 billion. In 2014, it increased by 16.6%.

In order to adapt to changes in the economic environment and user needs, the ICT industry is transitioning to a new technology platform that enables growth and innovation. According to Ms. Huo Jinjie, President of IDC China, “The process of the evolution of the third platform, represented by cloud computing, mobilization, big data, and social networking, from the second platform to the overall market has significantly accelerated. At the same time, The emergence of the six technologies based on the three platforms will become the accelerator for the company's future innovation, not only at the technical level, but more importantly at the business level."

For the Chinese ICT market in 2015, IDC analysts summarized ten major forecasts from a complex and complex market environment. We think that they are the most important ten trends at the strategic level:

Prediction 1: China's ICT Market Development Enters the “New Normal” in 2015

The development of China’s economy has entered the “new normal”. The core of the development is: from high speed to medium-to-high speed of about 7% in terms of development speed, and to make consumption instead of investment become the main force driving GDP in the economic structure, and to make technology available for development. Innovation has become a new growth point. As the people's livelihood improves, residents' incomes have risen as a whole. The income gap has continued to shrink. The ability to spend has gradually increased, environmental protection has been continuously strengthened, and the standard of living has risen to a new level. Affected by the overall economy, the development of China's ICT market has also entered a new normal, mainly in five areas: The overall ICT market has grown from high-speed growth to high-speed growth, and the ICT market structure will change. The third platform market is still the ICT market. The engine of growth, regional and industry ICT market differentiation and characteristics become more obvious, domestic brands and Chinese standards have become increasingly strong in the ICT market.

Prediction 2: The transformation of the smart city construction model will accelerate the development of new urbanization in China

In 2014, the Chinese government announced a series of policies to guide social capital to participate in the construction of smart cities. The construction mode of smart cities will be transformed from traditional “government-led, market-assisted” to “government-led and market-operated” models. In the next 13 years, rapid changes in the construction model will effectively promote the development of smart cities in China.

At present, the construction of smart cities in China is characterized by greater cooperation than competition. The construction of a smart city is a very large project, which involves various layers such as top-level design, overall integration, platform construction, software development, network support, hardware support, construction operation and maintenance, and service operation, and requires various types of manufacturers in the ecosystem. To cooperate together, we need to promote the evolution of the ecosystem through the innovation of the construction model. Therefore, IDC believes that with the concerted advancement of the government and the market, the smart city construction model will surely change rapidly in the next few years, which will effectively promote the development of China's new urbanization process.

Prediction 3: Hotspot technology accelerates the scale deployment of IoT in the industry

In 2005, the International Telecommunication Union officially proposed the concept of "Internet of Things." With the rapid development of the Internet, the Internet of Things is also striding forward. IDC predicts that by 2020, there will be approximately 5.5 billion Internet of Things terminals in China, accounting for 19% of the global installed Internet of Things terminals. The huge market opportunities and rapid growth of the Internet of Things have led many ICT companies to increase investment in this area. With the expansion of the scale of the Internet of Things technology, the integration trend with the third platform technology is gradually emerging. In particular, cloud and big data technologies will further assist the rapid landing and innovation of Internet of Things applications. In 2015, as more and more foreign cloud service providers promote public cloud service business in China through joint efforts with local partners, IoT public cloud services will also become a focus area for their attention. At the same time, some leading companies will begin to think about how to effectively use the Internet of Things to process data and bring breakthroughs to enterprise business innovation. This has become a major breakthrough for business analysts and solution providers in the application of Internet of Things.

Prediction 4: Further integration of cloud service ecosystem and value chain, cloud computing market vertical integration

After several years of development and evolution, cloud services will continue to maintain a large-scale growth in 2015, and with the continuous market development and innovation of major service providers, entrepreneurial companies that focus on cloud computing will continue to emerge. The overall market for cloud services will be further integrated, and a preliminary ecosystem and industrial chain will be formed in the industry vertical market, horizontal market of industrial chain, cloud platform integration, and cloud procurement model. The cooperation among cloud service providers will become increasingly common, and they will seek to survive and compete in the market through complementary advantages. The policy encouragement of the cloud service by the government and the competent authorities will also promote the further popularization of cloud services.

Prediction 5: The Spirit of Entertainment IT Integrates Product Design and Innovation

As China's national strength has been increasing, the spending power of Chinese customers has also continued to increase. IDC believes that Chinese consumers' understanding of personal IT is also gradually changing. Personal IT products will be more than just an IT necessity for work and communication. People are gradually defining it as one of the ways to change the quality of life. Just as fashion trends vary from year to year in fashion, IDC believes that IT products will become more entertaining in 2015, and the “entertainment IT spirit” will come from this. The so-called "entertainment IT spirit" refers to a series of new products that are more entertaining based on the original product form. Such as gaming notebooks, remote control unmanned aerial vehicles, home game consoles, self-timer artifacts and so on. IDC judged that more consumers will give up their inflexible product form in 2015 and choose products with more entertaining IT spirit.

Prediction 6: Fusion and innovation after the subversion of the personal IT market

The past three years have been a three-year subversion of the personal IT market in China and globally. Smartphones and tablets have overturned the dominance of traditional PCs, Android has subverted the operating system ecosystem, e-commerce sales have grown rapidly in China, and Lenovo, Xiaomi, Huawei and other domestic brands have further narrowed the gap with international brands such as Apple and Samsung. . Compared to three years ago, today's China's personal IT industry has undergone disruptive changes. IDC believes that this subversion will come to an end, and 2015 will be a year of seeking integration and new innovation.

Prediction 7: The software platform becomes the core source of power for industry customers to respond to market changes and boost product innovation

In the increasingly popular market environment of cloud computing, industry customers tend to adopt a centralized construction model to build IT systems to reduce procurement and operating costs. At the same time, as the market competition becomes more and more fierce, the mode of production and operation of enterprises has also changed, and the time for listing new products and services has become shorter and shorter. It is necessary for internal IT systems to respond effectively to market changes and support rapid enterprise innovation. The traditional IT construction model poses challenges. The original standardized software platform products can no longer meet the long-term development needs of domestic industry customers. IDC believes that more and more industry customers, such as banks, telecommunications, and manufacturing, will strengthen the building of their internal IT teams and build a basic software platform to rapidly develop and deploy IT business systems to respond to rapid market changes and future long-term development. need.

Prediction 8: The Internet accelerates penetration of traditional industries, and 2015 will be the year of the outbreak of manufacturing Internet products

The Internet will accelerate the penetration of traditional industries, and its connection properties will be further manifested. In 2015, the relationship between people and things, things and things will be in parallel with people-to-people links, becoming the main direction of Internet connectivity, especially the most obvious one is the internetization of manufacturing products. According to IDC's forecast last year, the manufacturing industry's Internetization will penetrate into the value chain of corporate R&D, production, logistics, sales, and after-sales services. IDC believes that in 2015, the trend of Internet manufacturing will further extend to the product. The physical properties of future products will gradually weaken, and more will play the role of Internet interface and information collection and transmission. Products will use the Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data, mobile and other Internet technologies to achieve the integration of the virtual world and the real world.

Prediction 9: Tower lease opens the road for telecom operators to “light asset and heavy operation”

The establishment of China Railway Tower Co., Ltd. and the gradual delivery of the Tower's assets will promote gradual normalization of the operator's iron tower leases, from self-construction to gradual conversion to leasing. At the same time, benefiting from the new peak of 4G base stations and towers in 2015, the scale of operator tower rental market will show a significant growth trend in 2015-2016. At the same time, the official operation of China Tower Co., Ltd. helps to break the uneven resources situation among operators and play a positive role in promoting a balanced competition in the industry. The three major telecommunications operations will have more energy and resources dedicated to improving the service and management level by transferring the towers and related assets to China Railway Tower Co., Ltd. for operation management. It will fully focus on service and business innovation and promote the balanced and healthy development of the telecommunications industry. . With the establishment of China Railway Tower Co., Ltd., the construction of a joint station will become the mainstream of base station construction, but its establishment will undoubtedly bring about tremendous changes and unprecedented challenges to the traditional network operation and maintenance, and promote the network operation and maintenance industry to intensify and prevent , Active mode of operation and maintenance transformation.

Prediction 10: Rapid development of local manufacturers, cross-border cooperation has become a trend

In the past few years, the localization trend has increasingly become the focus in the IT market. IDC believes that in the coming year, autonomous control will become the key word for the IT market. In the vast majority of government and state-owned enterprise IT projects, autonomous control will become a necessary condition. Emphasizing autonomy does not mean completely restricting the entry of international manufacturers. Instead, it emphasizes the openness of international branded products so that Chinese users can master the core technologies of the products and achieve controllable objectives. In this context, open source products will become a trend. Due to the nature of the open source project itself, the concept of control can be achieved. IDC expects that both domestic and international vendors will invest more in open source products in the coming year. At the same time, joint ventures and cooperation between international companies and Chinese companies will become increasingly common. These cooperation will be more in-depth from simple modes such as OEM and distribution in the past few years, including technological output, capital investment and other modes, thus creating a win-win situation for domestic and foreign manufacturers.

Looking ahead to 2015 and the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, the Chinese economy began to undergo structural adjustments and entered a new normal state of economic growth shifts. The process of the evolution of the overall ICT market and major industries from the second platform to the third platform represented by cloud computing, mobilization, big data, and social networking has accelerated significantly. At the same time, the emergence of the six technologies based on the third platform will become the accelerator for the company's future innovation. In the next 20-25 years, it will become the main driving force of the ICT market and disrupt the enterprise and its ecosystem. Impact. Manufacturers, channels, and users need to grasp the new normality of the economy and its nine major characteristics, adapt to the evolution of emerging technologies, and reassess and establish their own ecosystems to respond to market changes centered on customer experience and customer demand.