Christmas stocking effect in the peak season helps LED industry to warm down

According to LEDinside, an industry research institute, the total revenue of Taiwan-listed LED manufacturers in August 2010 was about 10.593 billion yuan, down 2.4% (YoY+64%) compared with July 2010 revenue of 10.853 billion yuan. Among them, LED chip factory's total revenue in August was 4.89 billion yuan, down 1.6% from July; LED packaging manufacturers' revenue in August was 5.70 billion, down 3% from July. The LED industry has ended its growth trend of sustained and record high revenues in the past six months.

LED backlight market situation analysis

In 2010, the LED market was dominated by the large-size backlight demand. Therefore, the LED backlight TV penetration rate and IT product sales volume greatly affected the fluctuation of the LED industry. Due to the poor sales data of LED-backlit TVs in the first half of the year and the high level of LED inventory in Korean panel factories, the LED industry is facing short-term inventory adjustments.

However, in the near future, both IT companies and TV brand manufacturers have drastically reduced their price to promote the clearing of the inventory level. It seems to have seen results in the short term. In the face of the upcoming Christmas season demand, brand manufacturers have begun to cover the inventory level. Due to the relatively upstream part of the LED industry component supply chain, orders from September to October will be shipped for the peak season of Christmas.

From the panel factory observation, Taiwanese panel makers began to increase the capacity utilization rate of the panel in October to prepare for the peak season of Christmas, which also indirectly confirmed that brand manufacturers are confident in the peak season sales at the end of the year.

Although LED manufacturers are still waiting for the order of the panel factory to withdraw from the current stage, due to the rebound in the capacity utilization of the panel factory, it is expected that LED manufacturers will have the opportunity to see the short-term Chunyan return from September to October. However, after Christmas, it will face the off-season of traditional TV and IT products sales. Therefore, the follow-up LED manufacturers can only strive for the next generation of LED TV models and the release effect brought by the appreciation of the yen to drive the next wave of growth momentum.

Chip factory's August revenue performance

Observing the overall upstream chip factory revenue in Taiwan in August, the overall chip factory revenue increased by 74% compared with the same period last year. However, compared with July revenue, it fell 1.6%. The growth momentum of some LED chip factories has begun to slow down and even decline.

The main reason was that the orders of large-size backlights began to be affected by panel manufacturers' adjustment of inventory. In addition, MO source shortages also affect vendor revenue performance. However, manufacturers such as Jingdian are more diversified. Due to the large number of customers, they can fill the loss of orders from Korean manufacturers in a timely manner, and revenues continue to record high.

Packaging plant's August revenue performance

In the downstream LED packaging factory, the overall packaging plant revenue increased by 56% compared with last year, but compared with July, there was a 3% decline. Due to the sluggish demand for LED terminal applications, especially for LED panels for NB and LCD TVs, revenues in August continued to be affected, resulting in slower growth in revenues of various packaging plants. Therefore, various packaging manufacturers began to focus on the application of the lighting end to support the demand.

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