I. 2010: Overall deviation of the overall operation of the economy
In 2010, the global economy was uneven, the market was fragile and volatile, the financial chaos was clustered, the economy was highly uncertain, and the global economy went out of recession and entered a slow and unstable recovery period. After experiencing the first negative growth in output after World War II in 2009, thanks to the anti-crisis measures of various countries and the self-adaptive adjustment of microeconomic entities, the world economy began to enter a period of slow growth and uneven recovery in 2010. The economic recovery has shown considerable differences in different economies, mainly due to the weak recovery in developed countries and the rapid growth of major emerging economies. Although the economic recovery of the developed countries in the main export areas of refrigerators is slow, but in the general situation of the global economic recovery, the export of refrigerators in China in 2010 still has a certain increase compared with last year.
According to the China Electrical and Mechanical Products Import and Export Chamber of Commerce and Industry Online recently released in the fourth quarter of 2010, China's home appliance export prosperity index report shows that although the export volume of China's refrigerator freezer in 2010, the export performance is good, the total export volume reached 26,246,400 units (12 The monthly forecast is 129, but this is mainly due to the low base in 2009. Looking at the world, the world economy is showing a double pattern of inflation and deflation. The global emerging economies are involved in unprecedented inflationary pressures. In the middle, while the developed economies are succumbing to the downturn of deflation, the uncertainty of the international economic environment and the pressure of the domestic living environment have made the overall export performance of the refrigerator freezer industry in 2010 generally fair and biased. In the second quarter, except for the second quarter, the prosperity index is higher than 100, and the other three quarters are all below 100.
1. The prosperity index changes with the export performance
It can be seen from Chart 1 that the export climate index of refrigerator freezer changes with the change of export performance. The trend of increase and decrease is basically the same, which is closely related to the international environment and the seasonality of refrigerator export. In the first quarter of 2010, the export of refrigerators and refrigerators was always in the off-season, so the export performance and the prosperity index were not high. However, with the rapid growth of the world's major economies in the first quarter, the export volume in the second quarter was rapidly increased to more than 8 million units. At the same time, the second quarter's prosperity index also rose to more than 100 points. With the weak growth of the world economy in the second and third quarters of 2010, the prospects for global recovery have begun to become complicated. The export volume and the prosperity index of the third quarter began to decline. In the fourth quarter, it entered the off-season, and the downward trend became more obvious.
2. Export orders increased and earnings were not optimistic
In 2010, the export performance of refrigerator freezer has been not satisfactory. The reasons are various. As can be seen from Chart 2, although there are too many uncertain factors such as trade barriers and technical barriers in 2010, except for the fourth quarter. In the first three quarters, new export orders and total foreign trade were all acceptable. However, the increase in orders did not make the company feel that this year's situation is very optimistic, because it is based on the low base last year. In addition, the appreciation of the renminbi, the fluctuation of the price of raw materials, and the increase in labor costs have increased the manufacturing costs of enterprises, coupled with the increase in marketing expenses, the instability of private label development, and the volatility of enterprises. The profitability of the quarterly companies is below 100.
3. First-line enterprises are more resistant to pressure
Overall, the performance index of refrigerator freezer export in 2010 was flat, ranging from the perspective of domestic and foreign investment and the scale of export enterprises. From the perspective of domestic and foreign brands, the prosperity index of foreign brands in the first and second quarters is higher than that in domestic capital, while the third and fourth quarters are reversed. In 2010, the gap between the domestic and foreign investment climate index is not large, which indicates that the global financial sector is big. Under the environment, the competitiveness of domestic and foreign brands is high and low, almost equal. Generally speaking, the main export areas of domestic-funded enterprises are Europe and the United States, while foreign-funded enterprises, especially Japanese and Korean brands, mainly sell back to Japan and South Korea. In 2010, Japan’s energy-saving subsidy policy has increased the strength of Japanese-funded enterprises. From the perspective of the scale of export enterprises, the export of the first-line brands is the highest in the four quarters of the year, which proves that the first-line enterprises are more resistant to risks, because these large enterprises have strong financial support and some fixed customers. Order support and the grasp of domestic and foreign policies are more timely and accurate, and have more experience in developing emerging markets such as Africa and Latin America; for second- and third-tier companies, the first three quarters are slightly better for second-tier companies, mainly in developing emerging markets and In terms of cost control, second-tier companies are more capable.
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