The National Information Center recently announced that China's economy will maintain rapid growth in the second quarter and the first half of this year. It is expected that the actual GDP growth in the second quarter will be 10.8%, and the actual growth in the first half of the year will be 11%.
People are not surprised by this forecast. Because China's GDP has maintained a double-digit growth rate for four consecutive years, 11.1% in the first quarter of this year. The key issue is that, on the one hand, this year the country will focus on energy conservation and emission reduction as the focus of macroeconomic regulation and control; on the other hand, the extensive mode of China's economic growth has not been fundamentally changed, and industrial restructuring still has a long way to go. Under the rapid growth of GDP, It is not easy to complete the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†energy saving and consumption reduction target.
In fact, after the release of economic data in the first quarter of this year, almost all eyes on China's economic development have focused on energy conservation and emission reduction: in the first quarter, China's industry accelerated growth, and unit energy consumption continued to rise. Its important driver is the high energy-consuming industry. look up.
The data shows that in the first quarter of this year, the added value of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 18.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.6 percentage points faster than the same period of last year. The six major industries of electricity, steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, petroleum processing and chemical industry grew by 20.6%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year, far higher than the overall industrial growth rate. The added value of these six high-energy-consuming industries accounts for about 33% of the above-scale industries, the electricity consumption accounts for about 64% of the industrial electricity consumption, and the energy consumption accounts for about 70% of the national industrial energy consumption. In the first quarter, the national electricity consumption increased by 14.9% year-on-year, an increase of 3.2 percentage points over the same period of last year, which was higher than the economic growth rate of 3.8 percentage points. The electricity consumption of the six high-energy-consuming industries increased by 18.2%, 1.4 percentage points faster than the growth rate of industrial electricity. Chen Deming, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the end of April that in the first quarter of this year, the two indicators of energy consumption and environmental pollution did not reach the expected level.
According to estimates, if the proportion of industrial added value to GDP is reduced by 1 percentage point, the proportion of value added in the service industry will increase by 1 percentage point, and the energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP can be reduced by about 1 percentage point. In the first quarter, China’s secondary industry accounted for 50.8% of GDP, compared with 49.9% in the same period last year. The rapid expansion of high-energy-consuming industries has led to an increasing proportion of heavy industry in the entire industry, and the proportion of industry in the three industrial structures has been rising.
Zhu Hongren, deputy director of the Economic Development Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, warned that if the speed of industrial production continues to accelerate, it will not only increase the overall growth rate of the national economy, excessive consumption of energy resources, increase pollution emissions, but also increase the difficulty of structural adjustment and stabilize the economy. Growth is under greater pressure and it is likely to cause major ups and downs in economic operations.
In 2006, China did not achieve the goal of energy conservation and pollution reduction at the beginning of the year, and it has increased the difficulty of energy conservation and emission reduction in the four years after the 11th Five-Year Plan. Premier Wen Jiabao clearly stated at the video conference on national energy conservation and emission reduction work held on April 27 this year that this year is the key to fulfilling the objectives and tasks of the 11th Five-Year Plan. From the first quarter, industries, especially those with high energy consumption and high pollution, have grown too fast. At the same time, there are problems such as lack of understanding, unclear responsibilities, unsatisfactory measures, imperfect policies, unsuccessful investment, and poor coordination in energy conservation and emission reduction. He said that if this situation is not reversed in time, it is difficult to achieve significant progress in energy conservation and emission reduction this year, and the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" target is also difficult to achieve.
Experts pointed out that high-energy-consuming industries are on the rise this spring, both short-term and long-term. The former includes: international steel prices continue to rise, domestic and international market demand is strong; domestic investment and exports have maintained rapid growth; coal and oil supply and demand tensions gradually improved. The latter is mainly because China's economy is still in the process of accelerating industrialization and urbanization.
Another factor that cannot be ignored is the “coordination†of the place. In order to pursue economic growth, some localities have adopted various preferential measures, and even continue to encourage the development of high-energy-consuming industries, even at the expense of “having policies and countermeasuresâ€. One example is that the country adopted the “differential electricity price†in September last year to regulate the high-energy-consuming enterprises in various places. However, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, this measure has emphasized the poor performance since its implementation. There are 14 provinces across the country. Energy-consuming companies have introduced preferential tariff measures.
In addition, due to the imperfect legal system, unfavorable policy implementation and inadequate supervision, for some high-energy-consuming enterprises, the illegal cost is low and the law-abiding cost is high. The profit-seeking behavior makes these enterprises completely ignore environmental pollution and public interest.
The combined effect of all these factors constitutes a general increase in profits in all industries except the electronics industry in the first quarter of this year. However, the whole line of red is quite a spectacular picture behind the hidden worry. From the perspective of investment, although the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society has declined in the first quarter, it is still operating at a high level. As long as the scale of investment has not decreased, the contradictions of overcapacity will be difficult to resolve fundamentally, and will not naturally disappear. The high-speed development of high-energy-consuming industries is not optimistic. The faster the pace of its progress, the more constrained the problem of resource bottlenecks.
Energy conservation and consumption reduction is an important starting point for promoting economic restructuring, transformation of growth mode and improvement of quality and efficiency. It is also a comprehensive reflection of adjusting economic structure and improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth. From another perspective, it is a long-term game between social public interests and local group interests. Xinhua News Agency recently commented that behind the rapid increase in output and profits of some high-energy-consuming industries, some local governments have violated the central spirit and policies, and the unorganized and undisciplined behaviors that support the development of high-energy-consuming enterprises have become energy-saving. The biggest crux of emission reduction.
From this year, the government has put energy conservation and emission reduction work in an unprecedented position, stressing that this work should be the focus of macroeconomic regulation and control. Governments at all levels have taken a series of measures for energy conservation and emission reduction. On April 25, the State Council held an executive meeting, agreed to the "National Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments to develop a comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction", decided to set up a leading group for energy conservation and emission reduction work of the State Council, Wen Jiabao, the deputy leader, and deputy prime minister Zeng Peiyan as the deputy group long. On April 27, the State Council convened a national video conference on energy conservation and emission reduction. On the afternoon of the same day, Zeng Peiyan participated in the work meeting of the State Council on shutting down and eliminating backward production capacity. This is the first time that the State Council has convened a working conference on eliminating backward steel production capacity. . Afterwards, the National Development and Reform Commission and the local government began to sign a “military order†for eliminating backward steel production capacity.
This is just the beginning. Earlier, the National Development and Reform Commission said that the focus of this year's energy conservation and emission reduction work is to curb the excessive growth of high-energy-consuming products and increase the elimination of backward production capacity. At the same time, closely control the investment rebound in high energy-consuming industries. In addition, we will actively study the establishment of an outdated capacity exit mechanism to ensure the elimination of backward capabilities and the optimization of industrial structure.
There are many indications that the means of macroeconomic regulation and control of the Chinese government have begun to enter the track of standardization and legalization. All efforts will point to a goal: do everything possible to ensure the completion of the energy conservation and emission reduction targets during the 11th Five-Year Plan period.
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